Wind & Solar PV Interactions Across Countries #sciencefather #researcherawards #SolarPV

 

🌍⚡ Cross-Country Insights into Wind & Solar PV Interactions Using the Stochastic Lotka-Volterra Model

The global energy transition is powered by clean technologies, but understanding how different renewable sources interact is a complex challenge. 🌱🔋 In our latest study, we apply the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model to explore the dynamic interactions between wind power 🌬️ and solar photovoltaic (PV) energy ☀️ across multiple countries.

🔎 Key Findings

1. Scale Effects

   • Wind markets show both positive and negative scale effects depending on the country.

   • PV solar markets, however, are consistently scale-restrictive ⚖️, limiting their own growth potential.

2. Types of Technology Interactions

   • Current interactions are largely mutualistic 🤝 or prey-predator 🦅🐇 in nature.

   • Prey-predator dynamics are observed in the US, China, and Italy, with PV solar acting as the predator against wind.

3. Stochastic vs. Deterministic Orbits

   • Random orbits of installed capacity oscillate around the deterministic equilibrium orbit 🎯.

   • These orbits are normally distributed 📊, and the mean orbit converges to the equilibrium defined by the deterministic model.

🌟 Why This Matters

This relationship between stochastic diffusion paths and deterministic equilibrium helps us:
✅ Identify countries with stable technology diffusion patterns.
✅ Use predictive features of the stochastic Lotka-Volterra model for energy forecasting.

📍 Country-Specific Insights

• Stable distributions (normally distributed random orbits): 🇮🇳 India, 🇯🇵 Japan, 🇮🇹 Italy

• Forecasts: Three-year projections (to 2020) for both wind and PV solar technologies indicate clear trends in adoption and growth. 📈

🌐 Conclusion

Our findings show that renewable energy technologies don’t just grow independently—they compete, cooperate, and sometimes restrict each other’s growth. Understanding these dynamics is crucial for policy-making, investment decisions, and future energy planning 🔮⚡.

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